FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY

I returned home a short while ago to find that Kerry had finally called Bush to concede Ohio and the election. I'm too wired to sleep just yet, and as I type these words there are two speeches left to be given this afternoon. In the meantime, allow me to share a few post-election thoughts:

• Yes, I really did think Kerry would win. But that was Monday and Tuesday. Had you asked me on Saturday and Sunday, it would have been a different story. The week before that, while Al Qaqaa dominated the headlines? Kerry again. The weeks before that one? Bush, of course. Before that, just after the debates? You get the picture. The important thing was being able to live with either outcome. When Bush was trailing for weeks on end throughout the summer, I managed to do this. We'll soon find out if others feel the same.


• Since relatively early last night, bloggers and journalists have marveled at and mocked the incredibly wrong exit polling -- even I was wondering if the Republicans had pushed their dominance an election cycle too far. Yet this turned out to be the sole aspect of 2004 that went more awry than 2000. I can only add: Ha! And to the Washington Monthly's Benjamin Wallace-Wells, I say: Double "Ha"!


• Karl Rove and Matthew Dowd are frigging geniuses, whereas Bob Shrum and Mary Beth Cahill are incompetent shlubs. That's what some will say. Or to get meta, that's what some will say everyone will say, even if only a few, uninformed commentators actually do. Nevertheless, the reputation of Bush's strategists will rise. Shrum, who goes 0-8 in presidential campaigns, may in fact be slammed as hard by some informed commentators.


• Along the same lines, for the last four years Rove told everyone that 4 million evangelical Christians who might have voted for Bush did not because they weren't yet convinced he shared their values. Bush's conservative social agenda surely scared off some moderates this time. Last time around Bush's final popular tally was 49,820,518. With 99% of precincts reporting, his take was 58,527,956. In 2000 about 99.9 million votes were cast; this time it was 113.5 million voters. Even adjusting for the larger turnout overall, Rove may well have underestimated the pick-up potential among religious voters.


• More along the same: Bush went from being the first president to win without a popular plurality to a) winning the first true majority since '88 -- Papa Bush, of course, and b) winning the largest popular majority in United States history. Boy, sounds like everybody must love that guy! Er ... right. An ever-larger country and an engaged electorate will do that.


• Prior to last night, Ohio's Republican Secretary of State, Kenneth Blackwell, was being painted as this year's Katherine Harris. And why not? Ohio was supposed to be this year's Florida -- which turned out to be true in tightness (though as of now it's nowhere near as close) but wholly untrue in terms of "irregularities." Like Harris, Blackwell is ambitious -- he's running for governor in two years. But unlike Harris, Blackwell has performed his job admirably.


• Did Arnold help Bush carry Ohio? Assuming Bush really was trailing there last week -- after having mostly avoided the state throughout most of October -- it can't be entirely ruled out. Arnold has ties to the state going back to his bodybuilding days and, lest I point out, he's Arnold Schwarzenegger. I've been bullish on the notion of a Constitutional amendment to allow foreign-born citizens (of twenty years standing) run for the presidency, but it was pointed out to me this morning that Arnold may be one of the unintentional losers here. Had Bush lost, Republicans would have been looking for a new standard-bearer from outside Washington (and not named "Jeb.") But now Senators Bill Frist, George Allen and perhaps others have an eye on 2008. Any such amendment would have to meet with their approval. Why on earth would they ever allow what would amount to the "Conan The Destroyer (Of Your Presidential Aspirations) Amendment" to pass?


• Gay marriage bans passed in every state where they were on the ballot, even in my mostly-liberal home state, Oregon. This surprised me some, because Oregon has a decade-plus history of fending off anti-gay ballot measures. Even there, where its passage was the narrowest, it wasn't close at 57-43. I think gay-rights activists should take two lessons from this. One, a wide majority of voters do not believe gay marriage is a simple issue of tolerance. Two, these amendments would not have been on the ballot without the Massachusetts Supreme Court -- proof enough that, like abortion, the public does not want complex social issues decided by judges. Three, chances are pretty good that this wide majority will narrow, then flip over the next generation. Patience.


• We were spared four years of Tuh-ray-zuh (and having to pronounce it like that in mixed company). Journalists seem to think she would be tons of fun to cover, but this journalist/blogger vehemently disagrees: the shove-its, never-had-a-real-jobs, and lapses into Portugese were about as interesting as she was going to get. I was already bored. Admit it -- you were, too. Laura Bush may not be much of a character, but she is wholly unobjectionable and doesn't demand your attention to begin with.


• On the other hand, I will really miss hating John Edwards.


• The same goes for Terry McAuliffe, who has become (to my great amusment) the single worst major party chairman in the modern political era. I will certainly enjoy the deathwatch, which began last night the moment he declared: "This is the best election night in history."


• No more election ads! But to some extent I will miss them more than John and T-Mac.


• Almost as big as Bush's win was the near-landslide in the Senate and increased majority in the House. This is the second straight cycle where Republicans have gained seats (including the '02 midterms), and the second straight cycle where Democrats believed they'd learned some hard lessons. What will they fail to learn this time?


• Meanwhile, Republicans will find themselves running the country without an assured operational majority. Having been repelled by the Democratic party of recent years, I've supported their gains. But they have not delivered on their promise, and deep down, I'm still a fan of gridlock and divided rule. Perhaps it wouldn't be so bad if that was the result of '06. But only if the Dems actually learn something. I'll get you started: Ignore Howard Dean and his allies.


• This year was nearly a hat trick for Massachusetts. With all apologies to my friends who are from or have ties there, I can't say I'm disappointed.


• I am sick, sick, sick of blogs. I'm certainly sick of "We did it!" posts from sundry conservative bloggers who usually can be counted on to exhibit more restraint. At first I was reading the "We wuz robbed" posts on the myriad liberal comment boards and thinking: Mmm, that's good schadenfreude! But eventually I got sick of that, too.


• My side may have won -- overwhelmingly -- and to say that I am pleased is an understatement. But I've been following this personally and professionally for nearly two years, and I'm going to feel at least a twinge of loss.

After I get some sleep -- a lot of it -- I will return. It's been 34 hours since I awakened on Tuesday morning, and as it is, I'm pushing my luck. I'm too exhausted to be exhilarated. A little down time should do the trick.